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Friday, March 07, 2008

Very Few Scientists Predicted Cooling In the 70's

by Jay Allbritton
Ever hear this one, "How can we believe climate scientists about global warming today when back in the 1970s they told us an ice age was imminent?"

John Fleck and William Connolley over at Real Climate take a look at the data:
During the period we analyzed, climate science was very different from what you see today. There was far less integration among the various sub-disciplines that make up the enterprise. Remote sensing, integrated global data collection and modeling were all in their infancy. But our analysis nevertheless showed clear trends in the focus and conclusions the researchers were making. Between 1965 and 1979 we found (see table 1 for details):

* 7 articles predicting cooling
* 44 predicting warming
* 20 that were neutral

In other words, during the 1970s, when some would have you believe scientists were predicting a coming ice age, they were doing no such thing. The dominant view, even then, was that increasing levels of greenhouse gases were likely to dominate any changes we might see in climate on human time scales.

(more)
By the way something, it's not the sun either.

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